The hottest global industrial production continues

2022-10-14
  • Detail

Global industrial production continues to be sluggish

since this year, global industrial production has been weak and the outlook is bleak. The latest data from the world bank shows that the year-on-year growth rate of global industrial production has been less than 2% for four consecutive months, and major industrial countries such as Japan, Germany and Britain have fallen into a negative growth range; The global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), a warning indicator, fell below the boom and bust line for four consecutive months, and the manufacturing PMI of the United States, Britain and other countries hit a new low for many years, indicating that the growth prospects of global industrial production are not optimistic. The continued weakness of industrial production will drag down the growth of the world economy this year

the growth of global industrial production is sluggish

since this year, global industrial production has weakened further on the basis of last year. Industrial production in developed economies fell into the negative growth range, and the growth rate of emerging and developing economies fluctuated and declined

world industrial growth continues to slow down. According to world bank data, global industrial production increased by 1.8% year-on-year in July, and the growth rate has been below 2% for four consecutive months; Among them, developed economies fell by 0.6%, which has been negative growth for two consecutive months; Emerging and developing economies grew by 3.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month

industrial production in many major industrial countries is shrinking. The global industrial competitiveness index released by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization in the first half of this year shows that Germany, Japan and the United States are the three industrialized countries with the highest level of industrial development in the world, and the growth rate of industrial production in these three countries has decreased significantly since this year. According to world bank data, in July, U.S. industrial production increased by 0.3% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate since January 2017; Japan's industrial production fell by 1.4% year-on-year, with negative growth for two consecutive months; German industrial production has continued to shrink this year. In addition, it fell by 5.2% in July, and has been in a negative growth range for nine consecutive months. In addition, affected by the uncertainty of brexit, UK industrial production fell into a negative growth range from the second half of last year. In July, industrial production fell by 0.8%, a further increase over the previous month

emerging and developing economies also performed poorly. Although the overall industrial production growth rate of emerging and developing economies is higher than that of developed economies, the pressure on major producing countries is obvious. Among them, China's industries above designated size increased by only 4.4% in August, the lowest since April 2009; India, as the largest industrial production country in the emerging and developing economies except China, has significantly moved down the growth center of industrial production since this year. Although the growth rate rebounded to 4.3% in July, it is still significantly lower than the 5.1% growth rate of last year; As a typical export-oriented economy, South Korea has been in a negative growth range for six consecutive months due to Global trade frictions; In July, Brazil's industrial production fell by 4.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month; Mexico fell by 2.8%, which has been negative growth for nine consecutive months

the global system of early warning indicators can stretch, zigzag, tighten or puncture plastic splines at a speed at which tls-s10001 can set the compression (pull) of the tightening (or stretching) spring to a high (length) degree or the tightening (stretching) deformation is controlled, and the manufacturing PMI has repeatedly hit new lows. As an index reflecting the status of manufacturing in terms of production, new orders, commodity prices, order delivery, etc., manufacturing PMI is an important leading indicator of industrial production in the economy. Since this year, the manufacturing PMI indicators of the world and most economic systems have declined significantly. In July, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, the lowest since October 2012. Although it rebounded slightly to 49.5% in August, it was still lower than the 50% boom and bust value. In terms of major economies, in August, the PMI of the U.S. manufacturing industry was 50.3%, the lowest since September 2009; The UK manufacturing PMI was 47.4%, the lowest since July 2012; The manufacturing PMI of developed economic systems such as Germany and Japan has also been lower than the boom and bust value for many months in a row. China's PMI index in August was 49.5%, lower than the critical value for four consecutive months; The manufacturing PMI of emerging and developing economic systems such as ASEAN, South Korea, Mexico and Russia continues to be in the contraction range; India's manufacturing PMI was 51.4% in August, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month

the main reason for the weak growth of global industrial production

American trade protectionism restricts the global demand for industrial products and economic growth. From the perspective of economic cycle, since trade activities are to a large extent a link of industrial production, the trade cycle is highly coincident with the cycle of industrial production. Since this year, the United States has continued to expand the scale of trade frictions and extended trade frictions to the fields of science and technology and exchange rate, which has seriously disturbed the normal operation of international trade and the world economy and had a negative impact on the world economy and global industrial growth

the decline in the prosperity of the automotive industry has dragged down industrial production. As an important industry in the industrial economy, the performance of the automobile industry has been sluggish since this year. According to the statistics of LMC automotive, a global data analysis company, in the first half of 2019, a total of 45.159 million light vehicles were sold worldwide, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%; Data from the German Federation of automotive industries (VDA) showed that in the first half of the year, the Japanese auto market was basically flat year-on-year, with auto sales in the United States and Russia falling by about 2%, new car registrations in the European Union falling by 3.0%, and auto sales in India and China falling by double digits. In the case of sluggish overall demand in the industry, the production of the automotive industry has been seriously dragged down. The year-on-year growth rate of the U.S. automotive output value, which accounts for more than 3.0% of the total output value of the industry according to the specific situation, was -1.2% in the first half of the year, the lowest level in the same period of the past decade. The automotive production of traditional auto producing countries such as Germany and Japan has also performed poorly this year

global industry is in a stage of industrial upgrading and facing bottlenecks. Due to the rapid development of network, information, digital and other technologies, as well as the rapid development of 5g and artificial intelligence, the global industry, especially the manufacturing industry, is in the process of upgrading, which makes the development of traditional industries encounter bottlenecks. In the process of traditional manufacturing changing to the core of high technology and efficiency, traditional industries face the risk of gradual decline in output value or even elimination, which also affects the global industrial growth to a certain extent

the decline in the growth rate of industrial production will drag down the world economic growth

industrial production is an important part of the economy, and the world industrial output value accounts for about 30% of the total world economy. The world bank data calculation results show that the growth rate of the two is positively correlated, and the correlation coefficient is as high as 0.94. Historical experience shows that when the growth rate of global industrial production slows down, the growth rate of the world economy is likely to fall synchronously. If the global industrial production continues the weak trend since this year in the second half of the year, the annual growth rate may fall below 2.0% (the world industrial growth rate in 2018 was 3.6%)

recently, the world bank and other international institutions have lowered their annual world economic and trade growth forecasts to varying degrees. In June, the world bank reduced the world economic growth rate in 2019 by 0.3 percentage points to 2.6%, and the global trade growth rate by 1.0 percentage points to 2.6%; In July, the IMF reduced the world economic growth rate in 2019 by 0.1 percentage points to 3.2%, and the global trade growth rate by 0.9 percentage points to 2.5%; On September 19, the organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD) lowered the world economic growth rate in 2019 by 0.3 percentage points to 2.9%, and said that the global economic expansion would be the weakest level since the financial crisis

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI