The most popular structural overcapacity in China'

2022-07-27
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China's synthetic resin industry has structural overcapacity

the price has dropped significantly, the transaction is difficult, the inventory remains high, and the quotation continues to decline. Since this year, such descriptions have appeared from time to time in the domestic synthetic resin market report. As the world's largest producer and consumer of synthetic resin, the situation of this industry in China has attracted much attention

capacity shadow

overcapacity brings the shadow of insufficient operating rate, which has covered the synthetic resin industry

Sinopec Chemical sells materials with high hardness in East China, which are very brittle. According to Zeng Baozhong, who is engaged in the marketing of synthetic resin, the synthetic resin industry has developed rapidly in China in recent years. Taking polyethylene as an example, its actual production capacity was only 11.34 million tons/year in 2012, 13.5 million tons/year in 2013 and 14.3 million tons/year in 2014. In terms of import volume, it was 7.88 million tons in 2012, 8.6 million tons in 2013 and 8.75 million tons in 2014. The production capacity and import volume have increased, but the demand has not increased accordingly. The operating rate of polyethylene plant has decreased. In 2012, it was 91%, last year, it was only 83%, and this year, it is estimated that it will be about 80%. Polypropylene and other varieties have a similar situation

China's traditional synthetic resin production follows the petroleum route, where naphtha is directly cracked into olefins for re synthesis. In recent years, the production of coal chemical plants has deepened the shadow of overcapacity

coal based methanol to olefin technology has developed rapidly and has been industrialized in Shenhua Group, Datang Duolun and other enterprises in China. At present, 4 coal methanol to olefin units have been built, 4 are under construction and 36 are planned to be built in China

the price is vulnerable

in terms of price, there are coal chemical products inside and shale gas products outside. China's traditional synthetic resin is facing severe challenges

in the past two years, the domestic coal price has fallen by nearly 20%, and the raw material cost per ton of products of some coal to polypropylene projects has been reduced by 400~800 yuan. The profitability of these projects has been significantly enhanced, and relevant enterprises have achieved good performance, which has attracted some enterprises to actively expand and prepare to build coal to olefin projects and extend the production of synthetic resins

these relatively low-cost products poured into the market, causing impact on synthetic resins that follow the traditional oil route

from the current domestic supply situation, polypropylene accounts for 3% of the import volume of synthetic resin. The disadvantage is that the layout of the system is complex 0%, and polyethylene accounts for 40%. The main reason for the relatively low import dependence of polypropylene is that the domestic coal chemical industry accounts for a higher proportion in the polypropylene field. Last year, the output of coal based polypropylene (including methanol based polypropylene) accounted for 10% of the total domestic output, while that of coal based polyethylene (including methanol based polyethylene) accounted for only 3%. The development of coal chemical industry has a greater impact on the price of polypropylene with correct sample holding

polyethylene faces shale gas shock wave from abroad. Thanks to the large-scale exploitation of shale gas, the production cost of synthetic resin in the United States and other countries has decreased significantly. As a result, these countries have expanded ethylene plants on a large scale, and the next twoorthree years will be the peak period of production

in addition, many polyethylene plants have been built in the United States, resulting in a substantial increase in polyethylene production capacity

at present, China is still the largest polyethylene producer in the world. Market analysts believe that with the opportunity brought by the shale gas revolution and the three minimum polyethylene production processes in the United States, it is just around the corner for North America to become the global leader in polyethylene production. The rapidly growing production capacity needs to be released. As the largest synthetic resin consumption market, China may become its bull's-eye

take the road of technological innovation

facing the severe market, China's synthetic resin should take the road of technological innovation of structure adjustment

the overcapacity in the synthetic resin industry is not absolute, but structural. From the perspective of the import of synthetic resin in recent years, there are a large number of imported polypropylene pipe special materials, capacitor film special materials, polyethylene automobile fuel tank special materials and gas pipe special materials, and the average import price is high. These varieties or domestic production is small, or the quality fails to fully meet the requirements of users

China's imported materials have been upgraded from general products to special products, for example, polypropylene has been upgraded from homopolymer products to impact copolymerization and random copolymerization products, and polyethylene has been upgraded from injection molding and film to special materials for pipes and their blends

imported synthetic resins rely on high technical content and high added value to win, which is the golden key for the domestic synthetic resin industry

Zeng Baozhong suggested that China's synthetic resin enterprises should first improve the technical content of products, break through high-tech barriers and lock in users; Second, we should strengthen the technical service and after-sales service of products, so that users can have the highest cost performance on the premise of appropriate purchase cost; Third, improve product quality. Enterprises can choose competitive users to visit and customize products, such as strengthening quality management and increasing certification according to the other party's requirements, and binding high-end customers

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